Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BA 0xba42…5ea4 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$14
other 24% −$2
weather 3% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.1% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤30d 4 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 25% -4.6%
≤90d 11 +2.3% -7.5% 27% 18% -7.1%
all 20 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 10% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 10% -7.4%
10% -17.2% 0% -16.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -24.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage459d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$5 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $53 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $32 +$4 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $35 −$3 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $12 $0 +4%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $13 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $45 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $37 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $18 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $14 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $2 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $19 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $21 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $39 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $39 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $38 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $38 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $33 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $3 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $32 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $32 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $32 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 63¢ $36 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 57¢ $32 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $0 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $32 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $35 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $35 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $35 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 59¢ $35 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 59¢ $35 33d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $8 34d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $24 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.92 · official $45.92 (match) · 57 history records