Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BA 0xba42…2404 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$90 (+12%) realized +$89 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$40
world 16% −$6
crypto 13% +$3
other 7% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +31.6% +19.0% 56% 33% -7.2%
≤30d 9 +31.6% +19.0% 56% 33% -7.2%
≤90d 9 +31.6% +19.0% 56% 33% -7.2%
all 9 +31.6% +19.0% 56% 33% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 33% -7.2%
10% +7.6% 22% -16.1%
15% -2.8% 11% -24.2%
20% -12.3% 11% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$32 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $136 +$40 +29%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$14 -28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$78 +509%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$19 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 8m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $96 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 2¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 65¢ $101 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 25¢ $36 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $103 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $119 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 94¢ $105 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 89¢ $100 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.02 · official $136.02 · 20 history records