Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xba41…3976 tech 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$342 (+8%) realized +$146 · open +$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 60% +$237
politics 30% +$71
other 10% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.7% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 5 +10.7% +0.2% 100% 40% -4.5%
≤90d 6 +9.9% -0.5% 100% 33% -4.5%
all 6 +9.9% -0.5% 100% 33% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 33% -4.5%
10% -10.1% 17% -13.6%
15% -18.7% 0% -22.0%
20% -26.7% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,913
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage62d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $767 $924 +$157 (+20%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $600 $635 +$35 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $351 $355 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $722 +$34 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? Jun 04 $411 +$24 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $23 +$5 +24%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $1,247 +$71 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 28 $1 $0 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $22 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $352 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $503 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $9 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $244 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $230 10d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? SELL Yes 100¢ $230 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $722 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? SELL Yes 81¢ $79 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 21d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $602 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $948 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $5 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $79 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? SELL Yes 81¢ $124 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? BUY Yes 85¢ $302 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? BUY Yes 82¢ $69 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? BUY Yes 81¢ $23 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 65¢ $1 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $453 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $71 26d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 55¢ $1 28d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $28 29d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $14 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,913.44 · official $1,913.44 (match) · 40 history records