Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BA 0xba3f…6250 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+9%) realized +$126 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$389
other 24% −$240
tech 15% −$37
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.6% -54.4% 29% 29% -25.2%
≤30d 8 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 38% +7.5%
≤90d 10 -46.4% -51.5% 30% 30% +5.6%
all 10 -46.4% -51.5% 30% 30% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.5% 30% +5.6%
10% -56.1% 30% -4.5%
15% -60.4% 30% -13.7%
20% -64.3% 20% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$35 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage32d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 15¢ 12¢ $150 $113 −$37 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $303 +$125 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $173 −$170 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$253 +83%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $397 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $252 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $557 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 18d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $155 26d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 31d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.84 · official $112.84 (match) · 22 history records