Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba3f…82cb
sports · 113 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$45 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$98
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses44 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)91 / 113
History coverage536d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 22 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$23
14 days+$27
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 36¢ 69¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+91%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 20¢ 31¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+55%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 49¢ 58¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 80¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 38¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 67¢ 56¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? OpenAI 8¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) G2 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Stars vs. Ducks Stars 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $6 +$4 +58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -11%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $32 −$4 -11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -34%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $6 +$3 +56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $6 +$2 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -45%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$2 +38%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$3 +47%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $4 +$1 +26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $4 +$21 +510%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6 +$14 +212%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 06 $0 $0 +96%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $6 +$4 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 04 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$46
other 10% +$3
economics 8% $0
world 6% −$3
politics 2% −$2
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? BUY OpenAI 8¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 2h
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 61¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $3 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 30h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 47¢ $1 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 32h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 33h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $2 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $3 33h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 34h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $3 34h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 35h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 35h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $3 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 35h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 37% +0.1%
≤30d 60 +9.0% -1.4% 45% 40% +1.2%
≤90d 63 +10.9% +0.3% 48% 43% +4.3%
all 91 +6.9% -3.3% 48% 40% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 40% -8.2%
10% -12.6% 33% -16.9%
15% -21.0% 27% -25.0%
20% -28.8% 21% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.43 · official $98.23 (match) · 300 history records