Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba3e…77e3 world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$4
sports 37% +$16
other 17% −$1
politics 5% −$14
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
weather 1% +$8
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 30 -0.9% -10.3% 23% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 40 -0.6% -10.0% 30% 0% -9.8%
all 72 +4.0% -5.9% 46% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 12% -9.4%
10% -14.9% 10% -18.0%
15% -23.2% 7% -26.0%
20% -30.7% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage530d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $22 −$2 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $41 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $32 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $36 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $82 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $40 −$3 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $44 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $27 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $39 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $226 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $249 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 06 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $26 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $35 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $34 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $34 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records