Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba3c…1b34 politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$1
other 39% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 23 -0.0% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage118d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $118 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $119 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $119 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $119 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $119 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 14h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $117 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $118 13d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $118 25d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $118 26d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $118 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $118 38d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $118 40d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $118 41d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 42d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $117 47d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $118 47d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $118 49d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 49d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 49d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $118 52d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $118 52d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $119 72d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $119 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $119 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $119 74d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $119 78d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $119 79d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $119 88d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $119 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records