Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba3a…d4f1 politics 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$18
politics 37% −$20
sports 11% −$51
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -4.4% -13.5% 7% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage131d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $506 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $259 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $216 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $264 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $478 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $455 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,219 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $381 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 29 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $418 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $240 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $280 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $281 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 9h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 14h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 15h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $218 22d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $218 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $216 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $216 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 26d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 26d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $264 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $261 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $261 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $181 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $181 30d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $222 32d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $222 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 433 history records