Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba38…f74d other 581 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,437 (+18%) realized +$6,164 · open +$3,273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%262W / 298L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$647
14 days−$483
30 days−$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% −$143
other 22% −$759
world 20% +$91
politics 8% +$816
tech 5% −$313
finance 3% +$210
crypto 1% +$27
economics 1% −$173
sports 1% +$3,434
culture 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 23% -23.6%
≤30d 67 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 25% -15.9%
≤90d 234 +25.2% +13.3% 45% 35% -6.7%
all 560 +9.8% -0.6% 47% 30% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 30% -9.7%
10% -10.1% 24% -18.3%
15% -18.8% 20% -26.2%
20% -26.8% 16% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$40 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$4,321
Realized+$6,164
Unrealized+$3,273
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses262 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions21
Markets (closed)560 / 581
History coverage244d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 1¢ 82¢ $40 $3,290 +$3,250 (+8150%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $300 $303 +$2 (+1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 48¢ 72¢ $120 $181 +$61 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $119 $102 −$17 (-14%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 66¢ $75 $99 +$24 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $67 $91 +$24 (+36%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 18¢ $21 $62 +$41 (+193%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-16%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 28¢ 22¢ $63 $51 −$12 (-20%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 8¢ 24¢ $9 $26 +$17 (+196%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-23%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $22 $11 −$10 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $70 $3 −$68 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-82%)
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-92%)
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
James Collier announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $505 −$255 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $170 −$136 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $261 +$129 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $115 −$10 -8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $326 −$86 -26%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 14 $131 +$23 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$8 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $290 +$10 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $66 −$42 -63%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Jun 13 $117 −$42 -36%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $122 −$50 -41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $182 −$10 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $34 +$71 +212%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $64 +$27 +42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $120 +$108 +90%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $657 −$43 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $73 −$66 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $143 +$7 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $45 +$10 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $64 −$59 -92%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $64 +$159 +249%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $23 +$21 +90%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $64 +$104 +163%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $409 −$69 -17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 05 $32 −$10 -33%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $140 +$33 +23%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $148 −$1 -1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 31 $136 +$14 +10%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 30 $68 −$66 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $270 −$46 -17%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $163 +$52 +32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 29 $106 −$41 -39%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $6 −$5 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $46 −$46 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $137 −$82 -60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $130 −$22 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $305 19m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 81¢ $190 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 81¢ $112 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 81¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $92 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $7 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 81¢ $172 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 81¢ $992 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 82¢ $40 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 81¢ $59 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 82¢ $207 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $178 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $2 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 20¢ $22 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $135 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $12 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $11 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $17 7h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 17¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,320.98 · official $4,321.37 (match) · 2757 history records