Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba32…deaa crypto 434 markets active 1h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52,004 (-55%) realized −$51,996 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%53W / 380L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$353
14 days−$353
30 days−$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 34% −$12,621
crypto 28% −$9,599
politics 13% −$10,890
other 11% −$9,767
culture 9% −$8,145
sports 4% −$448
world 3% −$649
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -77.1% -79.3% 4% 4% -73.6%
≤30d 94 -39.1% -44.9% 7% 7% -32.9%
≤90d 156 -39.7% -45.4% 15% 15% -45.3%
all 433 -40.6% -46.2% 12% 12% -63.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 12% -63.7%
10% -51.4% 11% -67.1%
15% -56.1% 11% -70.3%
20% -60.4% 10% -73.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$181 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$51,996
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses53 / 380
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)433 / 434
History coverage705d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $131 $123 −$8 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$119 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $27 +$218 +820%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $135 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $145 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.81 · official $122.81 (match) · 3125 history records