Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba2a…d857 sports 662 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-2%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate79%520W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$11
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$22
other 13% −$69
crypto 11% +$7
finance 2% −$9
politics 1% −$4
weather 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.2% -8.4% 95% 2% -7.0%
≤30d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 648 -2.9% -12.1% 79% 31% -11.9%
all 659 -2.3% -11.6% 79% 32% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 32% -11.8%
10% -20.1% 17% -20.3%
15% -27.8% 8% -28.0%
20% -34.9% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses520 / 139
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)659 / 662
History coverage120d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $7 −$2 -26%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $23 +$1 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $25 +$1 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $10 17m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 94¢ $5 18m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $5 34m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 98¢ $10 50m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 91¢ $5 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $10 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 99¢ $10 13h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $10 13h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 95¢ $10 13h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 98¢ $10 14h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $5 23h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 95¢ $5 23h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $5 24h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 96¢ $5 24h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $10 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $10 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $7 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 96¢ $7 25h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $10 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $10 25h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $10 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 96¢ $10 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $10 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $10 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $10 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 98¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 96¢ $10 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $11 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 96¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.61 · official $16.88 (match) · 1491 history records