Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba25…f055 crypto 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-6%) realized −$67 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%73W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$108
14 days−$108
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$76
other 9% −$21
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -10.5% -19.0% 59% 41% -20.9%
≤30d 124 -10.5% -19.0% 59% 41% -20.9%
≤90d 124 -10.5% -19.0% 59% 41% -20.9%
all 124 -10.5% -19.0% 59% 41% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 41% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 28% -28.4%
15% -33.9% 17% -35.3%
20% -40.3% 10% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses73 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)124 / 131
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 82¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$9 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$18 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 31m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.14 · official $35.19 (match) · 348 history records