Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BA 0xba25…a701 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,135 (+21%) realized +$1,129 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,097
sports 2% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% +14.4%
≤30d 18 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% +14.4%
≤90d 18 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% +14.4%
all 18 +19.2% +7.8% 56% 56% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 56% +14.4%
10% -2.5% 28% +3.5%
15% -11.9% 28% -6.5%
20% -20.5% 22% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$35 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.02 per $1 lost it wins $5.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,225
Realized+$1,129
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1,000 $1,007 +$7 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $377 +$206 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 +$11 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,030 +$403 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$68 +442%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $86 +$18 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,353 +$647 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 55m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $120 55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $72 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 40h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 40h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 46h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $20 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $155 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1,508 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $503 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,353 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,225.49 · official $1,225.49 (match) · 42 history records