Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
BA 0xba20…a435 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2,260 (+28%) realized +$2,236 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%24W / 6L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$421
14 days+$587
30 days+$947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$2,248
crypto 8% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.3% +21.5% 100% 100% +22.2%
≤30d 6 +31.9% +19.4% 100% 83% +19.5%
≤90d 14 +32.7% +20.0% 93% 71% +16.5%
all 30 +23.2% +11.4% 80% 70% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 70% +17.5%
10% +0.8% 70% +6.3%
15% -9.0% 53% -4.0%
20% -17.9% 27% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$129 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$2,236
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses24 / 6
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage185d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $664 $688 +$24 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 26 $477 +$148 +31%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 21 $726 +$274 +38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $604 +$165 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $442 +$158 +36%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $365 +$35 +10%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 29 $333 +$167 +50%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $345 +$25 +7%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 08 $254 +$96 +38%
Thunder vs. Suns May 03 $198 +$51 +26%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $507 −$504 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 23 $658 +$63 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 14 $446 +$101 +23%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 02 $373 +$719 +193%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 29 $354 +$246 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 18 $346 +$155 +45%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 14 $255 +$236 +92%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 12 $86 +$80 +92%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 12 $90 +$98 +108%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 04 $91 +$33 +37%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 27 $49 +$31 +65%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Feb 23 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 20 $67 +$19 +29%
Knicks vs. 76ers Feb 15 $57 +$51 +89%
Islanders vs. Devils Feb 05 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Feb 05 $60 +$30 +49%
Flyers vs. Canucks Jan 31 $24 +$20 +82%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 31 $42 +$21 +49%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $612 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $53 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 76¢ $213 4d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 76¢ $92 4d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 77¢ $39 4d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 76¢ $134 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $726 8d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 78¢ $604 14d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 73¢ $442 19d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $365 26d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $333 41d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 93¢ $345 48d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 72¢ $254 54d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 79¢ $198 61d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $507 64d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 91¢ $658 72d
Cavaliers vs. Warriors BUY Cavaliers 81¢ $446 84d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Connecticut Huskies 34¢ $373 89d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY NRG 18¢ $117 99d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $354 99d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $24 103d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $4 103d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $83 103d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $235 103d
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 52¢ $255 105d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 52¢ $86 110d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY Heroic 48¢ $90 113d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 73¢ $91 118d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Suns 41¢ $51 123d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs BUY MOUZ 61¢ $49 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $688.45 · official $688.45 (match) · 66 history records