Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba1e…946d
sports · 14 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$462 -68%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$460 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage239d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 4 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$124
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 70¢ 70¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 35¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) Yes 81¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? No 78¢ 0¢ $206 $0 −$206 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $99 −$98 -98%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Nov 04 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Nov 02 $20 +$6 +31%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 29 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 19? Oct 19 $8 +$5 +61%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Oct 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% −$124
world 32% −$208
politics 18% −$94
other 14% −$41
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -26.1% -33.1% 50% 50% -32.8%
≤30d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -66.0%
≤90d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -66.0%
all 10 -35.1% -41.2% 40% 40% -79.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 40% -79.0%
10% -46.9% 40% -81.0%
15% -52.0% 20% -82.9%
20% -56.7% 10% -84.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.74 · official $78.74 (match) · 21 history records