Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba1d…d326 sports 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,645 (+5%) realized +$9,065 · open −$420
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate66%64W / 33L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$1,770per market
Trades / day139.7pace
Fees−$1,965est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,866
7 days+$2,316
14 days+$6,293
30 days+$6,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$3,641
other 42% +$2,232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 97 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 27% -6.1%
≤90d 97 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 27% -6.1%
all 97 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 27% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 27% -6.1%
10% -15.7% 9% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -23.9% 8% -23.3%
20% -31.3% 6% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$3,029) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$269 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,517
Realized+$9,065
Unrealized−$420
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses64 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,965
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1,770
Trades / day139.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 58¢ 46¢ $1,937 $1,517 −$420 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $100 −$33 -33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,518 +$32 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,091 −$109 -10%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $427 +$1,130 +264%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $982 +$955 +97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $889 +$1,358 +153%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,760 +$44 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,540 −$1,379 -21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,550 +$468 +10%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,145 −$310 -14%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $273 +$18 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,429 −$166 -4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,468 +$3 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,003 +$41 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,046 −$60 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $499 +$9 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,801 −$1,015 -56%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $900 −$688 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,495 +$215 +14%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $593 +$8 +1%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,393 +$128 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $514 +$58 +11%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $23 +$2 +7%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $202 +$26 +13%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $280 −$78 -28%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,860 +$1,147 +62%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,617 +$554 +21%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,530 −$228 -15%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $327 +$35 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,009 +$39 +1%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,813 +$133 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,363 −$480 -9%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $600 +$29 +5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5,709 −$181 -3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5,503 −$227 -4%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $471 −$62 -13%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $402 +$20 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,495 +$1,527 +44%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $66 +$1 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $8,717 −$1,211 -14%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5,776 +$791 +14%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,395 +$948 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $929 −$51 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,489 −$873 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $1,332 2m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $18 2m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 54¢ $596 2m
England leading at halftime? SELL No $2 34m
England leading at halftime? SELL No $3 34m
England leading at halftime? SELL No $3 34m
England leading at halftime? SELL No $31 34m
England leading at halftime? SELL No $28 34m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $9 36m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $2 36m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $8 36m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $0 36m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $13 36m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $2 36m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $0 37m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $13 37m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $3 37m
England leading at halftime? BUY No $50 37m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 77¢ $5 44m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 76¢ $15 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 76¢ $15 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 76¢ $79 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 76¢ $15 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 74¢ $24 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 74¢ $81 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 74¢ $45 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 74¢ $100 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 74¢ $67 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 74¢ $100 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 71¢ $35 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,516.67 · official $1,516.67 (match) · 1845 history records