Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba1d…d55b crypto 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate90%232W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$177
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +4.1% -5.9% 91% 35% -8.1%
≤30d 257 +2.0% -7.7% 90% 28% -10.1%
≤90d 257 +2.0% -7.7% 90% 28% -10.1%
all 257 +2.0% -7.7% 90% 28% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 28% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 9% -18.7%
15% -24.6% 3% -26.6%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$72 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses232 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage11d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$17 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $150 +$38 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $73 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $197 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $167 +$27 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $150 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $56 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $70 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $91 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $82 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $73 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $61 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $54 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $46 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $36 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 536 history records