Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba17…5c67 sports 737 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$362 (-3%) realized −$434 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%361W / 364L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day116.8pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$440
14 days−$1,269
30 days−$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$422
other 3% +$48
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 +2.4% -7.4% 52% 49% -25.5%
≤30d 725 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 47% -12.7%
≤90d 725 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 47% -12.7%
all 725 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 47% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 44% -21.0%
15% -26.3% 40% -28.6%
20% -33.5% 34% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$434
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses361 / 364
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions12
Markets (closed)725 / 737
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day116.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 725 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 100¢ $85 $169 +$83 (+98%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 45¢ 44¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 47¢ 44¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$5 (+85%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 84¢ 60¢ $8 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 18¢ 40¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+125%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 58¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $14 +$37 +257%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $28 +$17 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 +$9 +171%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $49 +$41 +82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$30 +194%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 +$84 +176%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +180%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 +$20 +117%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Young Ninjas (+3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $9 +$12 +131%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $38 +$11 +28%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$3 +226%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$40 +97%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $3 +$4 +153%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $8 +$9 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 20¢ $3 3h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 3h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 3h
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Quinn 26¢ $2 3h
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Quinn 26¢ $2 3h
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Quinn 26¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 31¢ $6 3h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 30¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 43¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.64 · official $286.64 (match) · 3500 history records