Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba17…de77 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+0%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%48W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$995per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$82
tech 2% +$1
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 4 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 77% 0% -9.4%
all 51 -0.0% -9.5% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,184) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×23.61 per $1 lost it wins $23.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses48 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage202d
Avg bet$995
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 17 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $1,195 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $1,194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $1,193 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $1,191 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $1,190 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $1,188 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $1,187 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $1,186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 19? Mar 20 $1,185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 17? Mar 18 $1,184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $1,183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $1,181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $1,180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $1,179 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $1,178 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $1,177 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $1,175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $1,174 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 4? Mar 05 $1,172 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $1,170 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $1,169 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of December 22 above $430? Dec 27 $1,189 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 25? Dec 26 $1,186 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,184 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 20? Dec 21 $481 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 20? Dec 21 $701 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 19? Dec 20 $1,181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 17? Dec 18 $1,179 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 8-14? Dec 16 $1,178 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 13? Dec 14 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $383 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on December 13 Dec 14 $472 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 12? Dec 13 $1,176 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 11? Dec 12 $1,175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 10? Dec 11 $1,174 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 9? Dec 10 $1,172 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 8 Dec 09 $1,171 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7? Dec 08 $1,168 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $1,167 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on December 3? Dec 04 $1,160 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $1,144 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,400 on December 1? Dec 02 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 November 24-30? Dec 01 $1,140 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 30? Dec 01 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch SELL No 85¢ $39 1h
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch BUY No 89¢ $14 2h
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch BUY No 89¢ $27 2h
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 4d
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 4d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 8d
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $39 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,195 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $1,193 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,191 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,190 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,188 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $1,187 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,186 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,185 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,184 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,183 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,181 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,180 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,178 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $1,177 100d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,172 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,170 106d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $32 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records