Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BA 0xba14…88ac other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$10
politics 33% −$8
tech 5% −$1
sports 5% −$47
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 112 -6.6% -15.5% 5% 4% -10.0%
all 119 -5.3% -14.3% 8% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 3% -26.4%
20% -36.9% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 110
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage112d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $122 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $138 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $134 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $408 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $328 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 15 $293 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $150 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $151 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $273 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $145 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $287 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $281 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $320 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $325 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $28 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $28 4d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 17d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 18d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 18d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 19d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $145 20d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $145 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $122 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $122 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $143 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $143 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $132 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $132 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $151 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 335 history records