Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BA 0xba12…60bb politics 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,787 (+1%) realized +$1,786 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%37W / 136L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,457per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$26
14 days−$168
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$139
other 34% +$35
sports 12% +$1,999
culture 4% −$13
world 3% −$106
economics 3% −$10
crypto 1% −$16
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 120 -3.5% -12.7% 7% 5% -9.0%
all 173 +3.9% -6.0% 21% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 9% -8.9%
10% -15.0% 9% -17.6%
15% -23.2% 9% -25.6%
20% -30.7% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,062) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$8 · ×9.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$1,786
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses37 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,457
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $253 $253 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $848 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5,324 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $5,563 −$9 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $1,214 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,511 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $7,912 −$9 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,359 −$5 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,922 −$5 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,469 −$5 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,099 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $60 +$52 +86%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,550 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $512 +$1 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,076 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $3,698 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $2,039 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $2,582 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $3,919 −$6 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,529 −$4 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $53 +$69 +129%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,829 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,749 −$3 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $58 +$56 +97%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $6,077 −$6 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $2,626 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $4,867 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 52m
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $857 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $858 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $847 20h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $848 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 43h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $821 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $822 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $856 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $857 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $855 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $856 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $253 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,057 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,212 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,214 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,210 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,212 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $923 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $924 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $86 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.41 · official $253.15 (match) · 571 history records