Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BA 0xba0e…0eeb crypto 2245 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$407 (-6%) realized −$407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate66%1184W / 614L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,436
7 days−$1,070
14 days−$142
30 days+$671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2,171
other 1% +$10
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 548 -61.0% -64.7% 19% 18% -58.0%
≤30d 1798 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 48% +0.5%
≤90d 1798 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 48% +0.5%
all 1798 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 48% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.0% 48% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.5% 45% -9.1%
15% -10.1% 43% -17.9%
20% -18.9% 41% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1184 / 614
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1798 / 2245
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1798 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records