Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba0a…8ea3
weather · 68 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$199 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$197 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$130
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Open positions29
Markets (closed)39 / 68
History coverage54d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 29 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? No 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 91¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? No 89¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? No 83¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 75¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? No 94¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? No 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? No 77¢ 73¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? No 63¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? No 67¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? No 75¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? No 71¢ 66¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? No 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? May 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8? May 08 $103 −$4 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 8? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 8? May 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 08 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? May 08 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? May 08 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6? May 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? May 06 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 5? May 06 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5? May 06 $22 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? May 05 $41 −$13 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 4? May 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 3? May 04 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3? May 04 $71 +$28 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 3? May 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 3? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on May 1? May 01 $39 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $36 −$9 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 23? May 01 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on April 23? May 01 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 22? May 01 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 23? Apr 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 23? Apr 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 23? Apr 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on April 23? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22? Apr 23 $60 +$14 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 22? Apr 23 $60 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 23? Apr 23 $36 −$36 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on April 22? Apr 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 22? Apr 22 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 20? Apr 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 22? Apr 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 22? Apr 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 20? Apr 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 20 Apr 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 20? Apr 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$180
other 3% −$9
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 33m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 36m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $6 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $6 47m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 39 -11.3% -19.7% 69% 36% -24.1%
all 39 -11.3% -19.7% 69% 36% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 36% -24.1%
10% -27.4% 23% -31.4%
15% -34.4% 10% -38.0%
20% -40.8% 0% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.07 · official $130.07 (match) · 173 history records