Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba07…84b0 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate46%43W / 51L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$15
14 days+$8
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$12
politics 28% −$2
other 15% +$4
sports 11% −$2
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.5% -8.2% 70% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.4%
all 94 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses43 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage459d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $146 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $121 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $221 +$2 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $129 +$6 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $132 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $313 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $109 −$10 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $342 +$3 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $113 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $319 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $121 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $372 −$4 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $106 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $199 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $103 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $168 +$9 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $103 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $286 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $1,036 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $536 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2,073 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 27 $3 $0 +11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22? Aug 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 17 $6 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $111 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $121 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $121 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $121 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $121 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $110 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $110 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 47h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $117 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $117 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $117 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $117 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.96 · official $110.95 (match) · 365 history records