Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba05…3cd5 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 34L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 24% +$1
politics 13% +$17
culture 10% +$4
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% +$1
economics 3% +$4
weather 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 66 +4.5% -5.5% 48% 6% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 6% -7.3%
10% -14.5% 6% -16.2%
15% -22.8% 3% -24.3%
20% -30.4% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage479d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $3 $0 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $88 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Dec 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during Fort Bragg remarks on June Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gualberto Cusi Mamani win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 07 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $9 +$22 +228%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +71%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Reagan" during his May 13 interview? May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday? Mar 18 $11 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 7h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $15 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $36 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $35 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $36 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $22 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $8 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $24 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $15 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records