Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xba05…1a75 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$16 (+11%) realized −$19 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$15
other 49% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +42.1% +28.5% 50% 50% +8.2%
≤30d 4 +42.1% +28.5% 50% 50% +8.2%
≤90d 4 +42.1% +28.5% 50% 50% +8.2%
all 4 +42.1% +28.5% 50% 50% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.5% 50% +8.2%
10% +16.2% 50% -2.1%
15% +5.0% 50% -11.6%
20% -5.3% 50% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.49 per $1 lost it wins $5.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 67¢ 100¢ $71 $106 +$35 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $7 +$13 +187%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $6 +$5 +85%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $62 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 67¢ $72 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 4¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.32 · official $106.32 (match) · 13 history records