Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B9 0xb9fb…6e68 sports 62 markets active 2d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$771 (+14%) realized +$771 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 42L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$750
14 days+$747
30 days+$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$450
sports 20% +$393
crypto 2% −$89
politics 0% −$19
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +22.9% +11.2% 32% 28% +3.0%
≤30d 62 +14.3% +3.4% 32% 29% +2.3%
≤90d 62 +14.3% +3.4% 32% 29% +2.3%
all 62 +14.3% +3.4% 32% 29% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 29% +2.3%
10% -6.5% 24% -7.5%
15% -15.5% 21% -16.4%
20% -23.8% 19% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$18 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$771
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage19d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$89 -88%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $31 −$23 -76%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$71 -69%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $10 −$6 -58%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $31 +$276 +895%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $31 −$24 -79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,032 +$94 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 −$20 -48%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $10 +$31 +300%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $31 +$469 +1519%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $10 +$27 +261%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $801 +$49 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $21 +$18 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 −$6 -60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $21 +$45 +219%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,309 +$332 +14%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $23 +$21 +92%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $2 −$1 -37%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $10 +$8 +77%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $20 −$10 -49%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$5 -25%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 +$8 +75%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 9¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 0¢ $1 3d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 2¢ $10 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 6¢ $103 3d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 5¢ $10 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 5¢ $12 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ $10 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 4¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 6¢ $25 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 0¢ $1 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 1¢ $0 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 7¢ $31 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 8¢ $31 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 16¢ $31 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 5¢ $10 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 22¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 8¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 18¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 93¢ $195 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 4¢ $10 3d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef SELL Celine Naef 5¢ $5 3d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef SELL Celine Naef 11¢ $2 3d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 27¢ $31 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 52¢ $112 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 7¢ $31 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,127 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records