Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B9 0xb9f4…6195 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$30
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$28
politics 21% −$2
other 9% $0
culture 6% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.4% +14.4% 75% 50% +1.7%
≤30d 21 +8.2% -2.1% 43% 14% -5.5%
≤90d 21 +8.2% -2.1% 43% 14% -5.5%
all 44 +3.5% -6.4% 39% 7% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 7% -7.3%
10% -15.3% 5% -16.2%
15% -23.5% 5% -24.3%
20% -31.0% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.26 per $1 lost it wins $7.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage302d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $56 +$11 +20%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $11 +$9 +86%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $99 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $28 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 340 and 359 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August? Sep 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $7 −$2 -21%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $33 42m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 42m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $58 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $5 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $62 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $56 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $4 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $7 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $29 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records