Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb9f4…5af5 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$4
politics 35% −$2
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage14d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 100¢ 99¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will "Shrill: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $245 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $245 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Shrill: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $240 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $240 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $244 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $244 2h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $245 27h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $245 27h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $243 27h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $243 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $245 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $242 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $242 3d
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $178 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $246 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $246 9d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 9d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 9d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $247 10d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $247 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $244 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $244 10d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $247 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.50 · official $200.50 (match) · 46 history records