Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B9 0xb9f4…0d91 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$6 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% $0
crypto 7% +$5
world 5% −$10
sports 5% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 57% 57% -5.6%
≤30d 18 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤90d 18 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -8.0%
all 18 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 50% -8.0%
10% -28.6% 44% -16.8%
15% -35.5% 44% -24.8%
20% -41.8% 33% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 −$14 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 +$5 +36%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$11 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $19 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $6 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.80 · official $41.80 (match) · 31 history records