Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9f3…d6dd other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,471 (-6%) realized −$6,381 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 37L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,107per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$71
14 days−$2,630
30 days−$6,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$114
finance 26% −$2,044
tech 15% −$1,425
sports 8% +$15
economics 7% −$2,107
other 3% −$124
weather 1% −$298
politics 1% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.1% -22.3% 8% 8% -10.0%
≤30d 49 -10.8% -19.3% 24% 2% -15.5%
≤90d 49 -10.8% -19.3% 24% 2% -15.5%
all 49 -10.8% -19.3% 24% 2% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 2% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 0% -23.6%
15% -34.1% 0% -30.9%
20% -40.5% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$750) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$214 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,463
Realized−$6,381
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2,107
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1,552 $1,463 −$90 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor Jun 24 $72 −$47 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $250 −$58 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 23 $11,616 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $408 +$75 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $36 −$24 -67%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 17 $88 −$3 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 17 $122 −$7 -6%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $176 −$5 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 17 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 17 $178 −$7 -4%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 17 $12,685 −$2,044 -16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $1,108 −$53 -5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $880 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $893 −$59 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $750 −$239 -32%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 13 $300 −$134 -45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $11,660 +$42 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $623 +$16 +3%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 11 $28 −$6 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $419 +$1 +0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $179 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $98 −$73 -75%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $270 +$4 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $256 +$10 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $8,715 +$85 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 08 $4,000 −$1,484 -37%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $74 −$24 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 07 $580 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $480 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $7,860 −$2,107 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 05 $14,319 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,371 −$27 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $12,402 +$41 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $195 −$13 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $450 6m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 9m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $500 13m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 15m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 21m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 23m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 27m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 31m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 31m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 31m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 42m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $100 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $200 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $35 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $40 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $250 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $68 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $300 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $72 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $96 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,462.61 · official $1,462.61 (match) · 288 history records