Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9f2…b089 crypto 91 markets active 2d ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$406 (-19%) realized −$406 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%28W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$321
14 days−$432
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$426
politics 14% −$76
other 2% −$15
world 2% −$13
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +2.9% -6.9% 36% 34% -31.6%
≤30d 83 -7.3% -16.1% 31% 30% -35.6%
≤90d 83 -7.3% -16.1% 31% 30% -35.6%
all 91 -9.9% -18.5% 31% 29% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 29% -35.4%
10% -26.3% 26% -41.6%
15% -33.4% 26% -47.2%
20% -40.0% 22% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses28 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage697d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$76 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$25 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$59 +113%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -74%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $43 +$36 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$51 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$28 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $71 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $99 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $42 40h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records