Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb9f0…dc0a crypto 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate31%42W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,252
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.8% -13.9% 37% 37% +14.6%
≤30d 36 +12.4% +1.7% 47% 39% +2.9%
≤90d 136 -31.1% -37.7% 31% 18% -51.3%
all 136 -31.1% -37.7% 31% 18% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 18% -51.3%
10% -43.6% 13% -56.0%
15% -49.1% 12% -60.2%
20% -54.1% 11% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$82 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$3,039
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses42 / 94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 129
History coverage54d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 12¢ 12¢ $1,522 $1,582 +$59 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? Jun 27 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 7? Jun 27 $20 −$41 -200%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8? Jun 27 $15 −$30 -200%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? Jun 27 $38 −$75 -200%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 8? Jun 27 $6 −$13 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8? Jun 27 $172 −$344 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 8? Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 8? Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $323 +$1,085 +336%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $193 −$182 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $296 −$279 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$19 +166%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$30 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$34 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 27 $120 +$140 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$42 +170%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 14? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? Jun 02 $5 +$8 +171%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $5 +$18 +387%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $12 +$20 +171%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $9 +$34 +394%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $181 +$8 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $26 −$47 -185%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 02 $9 −$3 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $90 −$24 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 02 $249 −$195 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $80 −$61 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $219 −$80 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? May 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 10? May 12 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 11? May 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $10 +$15 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 11? May 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 12 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $51 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $27 +$39 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 12 $425 −$701 -165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 12 $14 −$10 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $30 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $64 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $72 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $84 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $86 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $18 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $13 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,038.74 · official $3,038.14 (match) · 999 history records