Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9ec…0fd5 crypto 488 markets active 5d ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%264W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$116
weather 2% −$125
sports 1% +$8
world 1% −$22
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 100% +37.7%
≤30d 1 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 100% +37.7%
≤90d 9 -83.1% -84.7% 11% 11% -85.1%
all 487 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 53% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 53% -9.8%
10% -16.9% 50% -18.5%
15% -25.0% 44% -26.3%
20% -32.3% 37% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses264 / 223
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)487 / 488
History coverage194d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 487 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on Mar Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 13 Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 12 Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 12 Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 11 Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 12 Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 13 $89 +$24 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 12 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 12 $141 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 12 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 12 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 12 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 12 $44 +$85 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 11 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 11 $9 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 11 $66 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 11 $7 +$13 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 11 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 11 $10 +$10 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 11 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Australia vs BUY 5¢ $28 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 97d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 12 BUY No 64¢ $50 97d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 12 BUY Yes 2¢ $10 97d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 13 BUY Yes 14¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $81 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $49 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $49 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $92 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 97d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on Mar BUY Yes 71¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $104 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $79 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $48 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1281 history records