Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb9eb…9701 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,415 (+3%) realized +$1,239 · open +$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 30L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$1,135per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,883
14 days−$3,492
30 days−$2,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$7,002
politics 25% +$6,794
world 13% +$3,499
sports 10% −$1,704
crypto 2% −$884
finance 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.6% -29.1% 12% 12% -45.5%
≤30d 23 -31.0% -37.6% 17% 13% -18.3%
≤90d 31 -34.6% -40.8% 19% 16% -6.9%
all 36 -43.6% -49.0% 17% 14% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 14% -8.5%
10% -53.9% 14% -17.3%
15% -58.3% 8% -25.3%
20% -62.4% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,898) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -55% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,011 vs −$387 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$1,676
Realized+$1,239
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage118d
Avg bet$1,135
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $1,100 $1,350 +$250 (+23%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $307 +$1,057 +344%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,676 −$262 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,433 −$1,433 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,265 −$163 -7%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,849 −$1,800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $59 −$55 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,023 −$780 -76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,358 −$511 -22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,431 −$1,329 -93%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,010 −$79 -8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $1,016 −$54 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,048 −$170 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $1,025 −$104 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $4,000 +$5,616 +140%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,898 +$505 +27%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,000 −$101 -5%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April? Apr 19 $100 −$95 -95%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $5,000 +$1,280 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$189 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 09 $150 −$140 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $100 −$83 -84%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 05 $3,415 +$3,610 +106%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 08 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 01 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 01 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2,414 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,102 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $27 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $243 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 8d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,016 8d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,847 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $103 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $922 9d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $931 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $509 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $514 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $962 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,127 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,676 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,675.50 · official $1,675.50 (match) · 92 history records