Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9e9…4843 crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate87%60W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -6.1% -15.0% 87% 23% -13.5%
≤30d 69 -6.1% -15.0% 87% 23% -13.5%
≤90d 69 -6.1% -15.0% 87% 23% -13.5%
all 69 -6.1% -15.0% 87% 23% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 23% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 4% -21.8%
15% -30.6% 0% -29.4%
20% -37.4% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses60 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 95¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.93 (match) · 145 history records