Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B9 0xb9e9…0401 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate69%25W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$4
world 25% −$3
tech 25% −$1
politics 12% −$3
crypto 0% +$2
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +3.1% -6.8% 80% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +3.3% -6.6% 79% 14% -9.6%
all 36 +12.0% +1.3% 69% 33% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 33% -9.5%
10% -8.4% 31% -18.1%
15% -17.2% 25% -26.0%
20% -25.3% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$2,712
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage458d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,714 $2,712 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $2,745 −$3 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 27 $2,719 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $2 +$2 +113%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 23 $1 +$3 +270%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? Feb 24 $3 $0 +0%
SK Brann vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 Feb 24 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 14 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 31? Feb 03 $3 $0 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Feb 03 $5 $0 +9%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw? Jan 27 $2 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Jan 19 $2 +$2 +113%
Wild vs. Jets Dec 29 $4 +$4 +92%
Spread: Stars (-1.5) Dec 29 $4 +$5 +113%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2025-12-20? Dec 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 22 $4 +$3 +79%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-07? Dec 08 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-12-07? Dec 08 $2 +$3 +138%
Canadiens vs. Red Wings Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.16 on April 18? Apr 26 $3 +$1 +41%
Will GameStop launch a coin by April 1? Apr 15 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,714 33m
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,742 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,745 2h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $2,717 3h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $2,719 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 17d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $3 17d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $4 24d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? BUY No 98¢ $4 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 84¢ $4 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 37d
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 73d
Will Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1 73d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $1 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 128d
SK Brann vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3 128d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,253 133d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,255 133d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 133d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,256 133d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? BUY No 91¢ $5 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 31? BUY No 92¢ $3 148d
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2 154d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team (BO3) BUY paiN 47¢ $2 162d
Wild vs. Jets BUY Wild 52¢ $4 182d
Spread: Stars (-1.5) BUY Blackhawks 47¢ $4 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,712.38 · official $2,712.38 (match) · 74 history records