Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9e8…3817 crypto 1429 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate90%1283W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -0.1% -9.6% 88% 47% -9.7%
≤30d 231 -0.1% -9.6% 88% 47% -9.7%
≤90d 445 +1.1% -8.5% 88% 66% -8.2%
all 1428 +0.1% -9.5% 90% 21% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 21% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1283 / 145
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1428 / 1429
History coverage124d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.30 · official $2.31 (match) · 3206 history records