Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb9e5…13ff sports 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,838 (-6%) realized −$5,839 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%138W / 88L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$750est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,626
7 days−$1,809
14 days−$2,350
30 days−$1,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$3,231
other 39% −$1,889
culture 4% +$49
world 1% −$359
crypto 1% −$142
politics 1% +$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -22.2% -29.6% 53% 39% -11.7%
≤30d 114 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 45% -10.2%
≤90d 114 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 45% -10.2%
all 226 +13.3% +2.6% 61% 38% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 38% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 28% -22.3%
15% -16.2% 21% -29.8%
20% -24.4% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$237 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5,839
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses138 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$750
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 215
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$490
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 41¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 17 $0 −$24 -30370%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $46 −$55 -119%
Pistons vs. Spurs Jun 17 $258 −$258 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Jun 17 $128 −$134 -105%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat Jun 17 $136 −$188 -138%
Pelicans vs. Suns Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,670 +$448 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,530 +$109 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,132 +$372 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,767 +$706 +40%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $117 −$26 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $972 −$543 -56%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,633 −$1,633 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,220 −$380 -9%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $334 +$51 +15%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $467 +$333 +71%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $553 +$237 +43%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $350 −$289 -83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $920 −$920 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $497 −$28 -6%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $97 +$103 +106%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,372 +$1,048 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,068 +$182 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $893 −$170 -19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,803 +$84 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $607 −$75 -12%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $978 +$7 +1%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $424 +$8 +2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,682 −$690 -41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $325 +$40 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,920 +$320 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $470 −$470 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $501 +$154 +31%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $440 +$310 +70%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $181 +$19 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $810 −$810 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $494 +$506 +102%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $137 +$2 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $239 +$261 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $748 +$320 +43%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $256 +$64 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $528 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $991 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $279 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $0 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $301 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $133 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $820 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $650 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,029 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $368 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $644 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $630 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,747 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $870 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $880 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,122 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $13 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $427 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $22 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $86 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 3500 history records