Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B9 0xb9df…e654 tech 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,386 (+78%) realized +$5,677 · open +$6,709
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +218% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +155% what you keep after slip
Net edge+155%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,181per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19,759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 100% +$9,950
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+188.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +218.4% +188.1% 100% 100% +188.1%
≤30d 1 +218.4% +188.1% 100% 100% +188.1%
≤90d 1 +218.4% +188.1% 100% 100% +188.1%
all 1 +218.4% +188.1% 100% 100% +188.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +188.1% 100% +188.1%
10% ← realistic here +160.5% 100% +160.5%
15% +135.3% 100% +135.3%
20% +112.3% 100% +112.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +218% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +218% · $-wt +218% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,241 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$19,759
Realized+$5,677
Unrealized+$6,709
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3,181
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 42¢ 99¢ $4,892 $11,592 +$6,700 (+137%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $7,740 $7,875 +$135 (+2%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $195 $210 +$15 (+8%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $223 $82 −$141 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1,484 +$3,241 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7,783 3h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $88 10h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $107 10h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3,967 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $13 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $269 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $381 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $211 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2,931 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,759.00 · official $19,759.00 (match) · 81 history records