Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9dd…13a2 sports 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$287 (-8%) realized −$313 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%62W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$280
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -10.0% -18.5% 60% 54% -18.5%
≤30d 103 -10.0% -18.5% 60% 54% -18.5%
≤90d 103 -10.0% -18.5% 60% 54% -18.5%
all 103 -10.0% -18.5% 60% 54% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 54% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 35% -26.3%
15% -33.4% 24% -33.4%
20% -40.0% 15% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses62 / 41
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions20
Markets (closed)103 / 123
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Moutet 51¢ 76¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+48%)
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 62¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Darwin Blanch vs. Ugo Blanchet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 62¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Brandon Nakashima vs. Jack Draper: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 58¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Moutet vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 21.5 Over 51¢ 57¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Darwin Blanch 62¢ 69¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Corentin Moutet vs. Marton Fucsovics: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 56¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Jones vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 23.5 Under 51¢ 56¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
ITF Bakio: Max Benaim vs Enrique Carrascosa Diaz Enrique Carrascosa Diaz 77¢ 82¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Jones vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 22.5 Under 51¢ 54¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Gojo (+1.5) Gojo 60¢ 64¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 63¢ 66¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Francesco Maestrelli 62¢ 63¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 69¢ 69¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Ruzic (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) Marcinko 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Yu-Hsiou Hsu 43¢ 40¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Cocciaretto (+1.5) Cocciaretto 52¢ 32¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-38%)
Set Handicap: Joint (-1.5) vs Arango (+1.5) Arango 53¢ 32¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nakashima vs. Draper: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $30 −$1 -3%
Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) Jun 21 $9 +$4 +46%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $31 +$38 +124%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Theo Papamalamis vs Melios Efstathiou Jun 21 $13 +$2 +13%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 21 $30 +$6 +18%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $30 +$18 +60%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 21 $30 +$7 +23%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $30 +$4 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 20 $30 +$13 +44%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $30 +$19 +62%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Martina Trevisan vs Taylor Townsend Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Sandro Kopp Jun 20 $30 +$5 +15%
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $30 −$11 -36%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 20 $30 +$6 +18%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $25 −$4 -15%
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Adelina Lachinova Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Chenting Zhu Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
ITF Taipei: Haruka Kaji vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 20 $30 +$4 +13%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Pino (+1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$60 +197%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jun 19 $30 +$12 +40%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $30 +$27 +90%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Noah Karma Jun 19 $31 +$53 +172%
ITF Lourinha: Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 19 $30 +$7 +24%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Ystad: Ida Wobker vs Thea Frodin Jun 19 $30 +$16 +52%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $30 +$7 +23%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Madison Sieg Jun 19 $30 +$8 +26%
Valentina Ivanov vs. Madison Sieg: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$14 +48%
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $30 +$4 +15%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $30 +$4 +12%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 19 $30 +$7 +24%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Corentin Moutet vs. Marton Fucsovics: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $30 23m
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Moutet 51¢ $30 24m
Moutet vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 24m
Jones vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 37m
Jones vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 38m
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $30 46m
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 69¢ $30 47m
Nakashima vs. Draper: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Brandon Nakashima vs. Jack Draper: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $30 1h
Darwin Blanch vs. Ugo Blanchet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Darwin Blanch 62¢ $30 1h
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Cocciaretto (+1.5) BUY Cocciaretto 52¢ $30 1h
Set Handicap: Joint (-1.5) vs Arango (+1.5) BUY Arango 53¢ $30 1h
Set Handicap: Ruzic (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 51¢ $30 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 67¢ $30 1h
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Gojo (+1.5) BUY Gojo 60¢ $30 4h
ITF Bakio: Max Benaim vs Enrique Carrascosa Diaz BUY Enrique Carrascosa Diaz 77¢ $30 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 44¢ $31 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Francesco Maestrelli 62¢ $30 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Yu-Hsiou Hsu 43¢ $31 16h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 67¢ $30 20h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Andrej Nedic 64¢ $30 24h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Theo Papamalamis vs Melios Efstathiou BUY Theo Papamalamis 88¢ $13 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 63¢ $30 24h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 84¢ $30 28h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Jake Delaney 89¢ $30 30h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Evialina Laskevich 81¢ $30 31h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 87¢ $30 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit BUY Marco Trungelliti 54¢ $30 34h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 62¢ $30 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.85 · official $646.86 (match) · 195 history records