Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B9 0xb9d8…6297 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$64 (-7%) realized −$64 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip

Net edge+70%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$53per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$202

7 days−$7

14 days−$7

30 days−$7

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)+69.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+130.9%	+108.9%	46%	38%	-12.7%
≤30d	13	+130.9%	+108.9%	46%	38%	-12.7%
≤90d	13	+130.9%	+108.9%	46%	38%	-12.7%
all	16	+87.6%	+69.8%	38%	31%	-14.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+69.8%	31%	-14.0%
10%	+53.5%	25%	-22.2%
15%	+38.7%	25%	-29.7%
20%	+25.1%	25%	-36.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +88% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +217% → late -42% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$67 vs −$47 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized−$64

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage105d

Avg bet$53

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$35	$35	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$34	+$1	+2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$203	−$163	-80%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$121	+$82	+67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$49	−$48	-98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN	Jun 17	$18	−$17	-94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$132	−$130	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$102	+$68	+66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$143	+$100	+70%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$25	+$5	+18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2	$0	+0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$6	+$144	+2400%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Jun 14	$20	−$10	-50%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Mar 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Mar 08	$2	−$2	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Mar 08	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	6¢	$36	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$35	1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	81¢	$40	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	13¢	$40	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	63¢	$203	3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$49	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$121	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN	SELL	1¢	$1	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN	BUY	12¢	$18	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	60¢	$132	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	59¢	$102	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	58¢	$143	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	84¢	$25	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15	BUY	5¢	$14	5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	SELL Yes	9¢	$10	6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	4¢	$6	66d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$34	89d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	91d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$20	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$2	104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$1	104d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.86 · official $34.86 (match) · 118 history records