Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9d8…9383 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$537 (-22%) realized −$497 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$520
14 days−$520
30 days−$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$465
other 48% −$95
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -33.8% -40.1% 45% 41% -32.6%
≤30d 29 -33.8% -40.1% 45% 41% -32.6%
≤90d 29 -33.8% -40.1% 45% 41% -32.6%
all 29 -33.8% -40.1% 45% 41% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 41% -32.6%
10% -45.8% 21% -39.0%
15% -51.0% 10% -44.9%
20% -55.8% 10% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$45 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$497
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 −$60 -30%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $81 +$66 +81%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $708 −$64 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +85%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 27m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 50m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $30 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $20 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $50 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 87¢ $50 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 13¢ $16 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $51 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $51 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Tunisia 59¢ $24 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Tunisia 53¢ $64 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 61¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY 61¢ $253 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 83¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 40¢ $18 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $21.30 · 69 history records