Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B9 0xb9d4…9002 other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,270 (+18%) realized +$2,936 · open −$666
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days−$952
14 days+$2,225
30 days+$2,665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2,909
other 34% −$735
politics 10% −$172
sports 6% +$9
crypto 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.9% -31.2% 33% 11% -35.6%
≤30d 42 +17.2% +6.0% 52% 43% +15.8%
≤90d 45 +16.0% +4.9% 51% 42% +15.8%
all 45 +16.0% +4.9% 51% 42% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 42% +15.8%
10% -5.1% 36% +4.7%
15% -14.3% 33% -5.4%
20% -22.7% 27% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$78 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2,133
Realized+$2,936
Unrealized−$666
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions12
Markets (closed)45 / 59
History coverage33d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $510 $435 −$75 (-15%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $414 $412 −$2 (-1%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? No 33¢ 24¢ $429 $312 −$117 (-27%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $258 $252 −$5 (-2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $231 $228 −$4 (-2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $300 $167 −$133 (-44%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $113 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $137 $111 −$26 (-19%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $52 $48 −$3 (-6%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $175 $25 −$150 (-86%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 52¢ 7¢ $172 $22 −$149 (-87%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,024 +$6 +1%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 26 $103 +$147 +143%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 23 $492 −$198 -40%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 22 $356 −$266 -75%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $217 −$216 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $421 −$319 -76%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 21 $209 −$107 -51%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $80 −$18 -22%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $407 +$17 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,058 +$834 +79%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $464 +$296 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$258 +258%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $392 +$371 +95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $398 +$419 +105%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $332 +$340 +102%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $282 +$659 +233%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $424 +$14 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $152 +$55 +36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $98 +$206 +210%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $106 −$105 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $307 +$33 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $106 +$327 +310%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $250 −$15 -6%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 05 $36 −$10 -26%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 05 $20 −$4 -20%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $101 +$45 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 −$67 -67%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $102 +$137 +134%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $35 −$35 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $9 −$8 -84%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $43 +$19 +46%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $254 +$78 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $90 −$12 -13%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $51 −$11 -21%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $100 +$15 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $56 −$55 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 31 $509 +$32 +6%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $50 −$41 -83%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $51 +$92 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 9m
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK SELL Yes 23¢ $112 11m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $414 43m
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 1h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $104 2h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 33¢ $421 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 33¢ $8 2h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $68 7h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $11 8h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $14 8h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $3 8h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $2 9h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $0 15h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $7 16h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $1 17h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $2 17h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 23¢ $117 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1,030 17h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 82¢ $37 22h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 82¢ $203 22h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 84¢ $10 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $210 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $128 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,132.89 · official $2,132.89 (match) · 364 history records