Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb9d3…95f9 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+5%) realized +$26 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$16
other 21% +$3
politics 12% +$2
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 25% -6.8%
≤30d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 70% 20% -5.8%
≤90d 23 +2.8% -7.0% 74% 22% -4.8%
all 23 +2.8% -7.0% 74% 22% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 22% -4.8%
10% -15.9% 0% -13.9%
15% -24.0% 0% -22.2%
20% -31.5% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.61 per $1 lost it wins $5.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage80d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $17 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary elec Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $42 +$2 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 28 $39 +$4 +10%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $34 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $30 +$4 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 44¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 72¢ $21 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $2 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 2h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $7 2h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $3 5h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 88¢ $17 8h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 88¢ $2 24h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 88¢ $16 24h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 100¢ $18 24h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $17 41h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 87¢ $17 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 79¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $23 2d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 87¢ $17 3d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 85¢ $6 5d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $2 5d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 56¢ $3 5d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $4 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $10 6d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.57 · official $54.57 (match) · 73 history records