Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B9 0xb9d2…ca5a world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized −$98 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$902per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 542d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$72
other 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 50% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 50% -15.6%
10% -25.1% 50% -23.7%
15% -32.3% 0% -31.0%
20% -38.9% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$267 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$764
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage542d
Avg bet$902
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 60¢ 84¢ $410 $571 +$161 (+39%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $156 $145 −$12 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 23 $3,201 −$267 -8%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 19 $691 +$178 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $157 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $410 3d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? SELL No 84¢ $1,772 463d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? SELL No 84¢ $51 463d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 86¢ $822 466d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 80¢ $869 467d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 78¢ $18 467d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 78¢ $28 467d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 78¢ $629 467d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 67¢ $28 471d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 60¢ $146 473d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 26¢ $154 474d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 60¢ $111 475d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? SELL No 39¢ $623 477d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? SELL No 39¢ $488 477d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 21¢ $66 482d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 21¢ $31 482d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 22¢ $103 482d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 22¢ $9 482d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 22¢ $111 482d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 59¢ $998 485d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY No 57¢ $205 485d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 66¢ $241 501d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 66¢ $182 501d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 62¢ $10 542d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $764.04 · official $764.05 (match) · 29 history records