Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9cf…3014 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$40 (-8%) realized +$58 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 27% −$12
other 27% +$36
politics 23% −$77
tech 13% +$34
culture 8% −$20
sports 1% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.4% +14.3% 62% 50% +13.1%
≤30d 12 +7.7% -2.6% 50% 42% +3.4%
≤90d 12 +7.7% -2.6% 50% 42% +3.4%
all 50 -13.4% -21.7% 34% 30% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 30% +4.0%
10% -29.2% 28% -5.9%
15% -36.0% 28% -15.0%
20% -42.3% 20% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage138d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $97 $4 −$94 (-96%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +364%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 +$5 +257%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Acad Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 14 $46 +$8 +18%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $7 +$8 +111%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $5 +$6 +112%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $15 +$20 +136%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 +$10 +202%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 06 $5 +$39 +790%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 06 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $32 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $29 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 22h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 35h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $85 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 25d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 25d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 25d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 99d
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 99d
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 99d
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 99d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 99d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 99d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Acad BUY Yes 6¢ $4 99d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.03 · official $38.03 (match) · 90 history records