Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb9ce…e4fd crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$16 (-41%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -88.6% -89.7% 0% 0% -89.7%
≤90d 12 -63.7% -67.1% 8% 8% -59.7%
all 12 -63.7% -67.1% 8% 8% -59.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.1% 8% -59.7%
10% -70.3% 8% -63.6%
15% -73.2% 8% -67.1%
20% -75.8% 8% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage40d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? No 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 13 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $4 +$5 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 06 $2 −$1 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 20¢ $2 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? SELL No 0¢ $0 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? BUY No 29¢ $5 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? SELL No 1¢ $0 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? SELL No 1¢ $0 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? BUY No 3¢ $2 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? BUY No 2¢ $1 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? SELL No 0¢ $1 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY No 0¢ $2 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? SELL No 1¢ $1 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY No 2¢ $2 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? SELL No 2¢ $0 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? BUY No 6¢ $2 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? SELL No 1¢ $0 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? BUY No 10¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 29 history records