Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9cc…744a weather 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-4%) realized −$110 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%26W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$59
14 days−$62
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.3% +5.3% 71% 29% -4.2%
≤30d 51 +7.5% -2.7% 45% 33% -11.8%
≤90d 76 -14.8% -22.9% 34% 26% -12.6%
all 76 -14.8% -22.9% 34% 26% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 26% -12.6%
10% -30.3% 24% -20.9%
15% -37.0% 18% -28.6%
20% -43.2% 17% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 50
Open positions6
Markets (closed)76 / 82
History coverage52d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28? No 91¢ 94¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $217 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 +$34 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $179 −$6 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $416 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $33 +$11 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $142 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 −$15 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$44 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$59 +480%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$11 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $131 −$101 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $243 +$52 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$12 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $139 +$27 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $142 +$43 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $44 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 +$22 +266%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 −$10 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31? May 31 $9 +$8 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2? May 31 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 1? May 31 $6 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? May 31 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $15 −$12 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $19 +$11 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 31? May 31 $13 −$10 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $10 +$23 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $15 −$12 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $11 +$19 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 91¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $227 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 93¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 93¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 81¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 84¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 86¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 87¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 91¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 92¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $122 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 95¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 93¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $121 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $139 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 84¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $54 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $163 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.89 · official $77.89 (match) · 331 history records