Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B9 0xb9cc…6ab7 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+26%) realized +$50 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$24
sports 34% +$22
world 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +60.2% +44.9% 69% 69% +21.1%
≤30d 13 +60.2% +44.9% 69% 69% +21.1%
≤90d 13 +60.2% +44.9% 69% 69% +21.1%
all 14 +56.3% +41.4% 71% 64% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.4% 64% +19.4%
10% +27.9% 50% +8.0%
15% +15.5% 43% -2.4%
20% +4.2% 43% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +104% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage169d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 +$10 +216%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$17 +158%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.34 · official $33.34 (match) · 30 history records